Posted: May 11th, 2011 | Author: Joe | Filed under: Banking, Investing, Tips | Tags: 401(k), Banking, IRA, Refinancing | 2 Comments »
“The open palm of desire
Wants everything
It wants everything
It wants soil as soft as summer
And the strength to push like spring”
-P. Simon, Further to Fly
Spring is here (FINALLY)!
It’s been a long, cold, lonely winter here in the northeast, but the buds are present and the tulips are pushing through. That means it’s spring cleaning time – time to get our (financial) houses in order!
Here’s how I’m cleaning out the financial cobwebs in my life this spring, and using that desire to push like spring into a summer realignment of my retirement planning.
Consolidating bank accounts
Life’s been a bit crazy for me these past 7 years. Here’s what happened to me that had an effect on my finances:
- I moved to a town 2 hours away and changed jobs
- I became a homeowner for the first time
- I had a child
- I had another child
- I moved to another new town (20 minutes away) and bought a new house, to make room for an expanding family
- I had another child (that makes 3!)
- I changed jobs again
That’s pretty much it, but I think that’s enough.
All of the above changes have left me in a situation of having abandoned bank accounts strewn to the four winds. As of just last week, I had 5 bank accounts at four different banks! That’s not counting any high yield, online savings accounts at ING and HSBC either. That’s just local banks and credit unions.
Remarkably, most had little money in them and no fees associated with keeping them open, even though they were dormant. When I cleaned out the two accounts at one bank that had been dormant for more than 2 years, I had just under $50 between the two of them. I probably did them a favor by saving them the money to mail me bank statements every month stating that nothing had changed from the previous month!
Of course, all of these accounts make my book keeping a hassle too. I had piles of useless papers to be keep, or discarded securely and so many accounts in Quicken that my eyes glazed over every time I started to reconcile my banking activity. Not the thing you want to happen when maintaining your finances.
In fact, I made a sort of informal pledge to myself at the beginning of the year to simplify and streamline my financial life as much as possible. It’s already paying off. I no longer feel overwhelmed by the number of accounts and financial detritus cluttering my Quicken records. As a result, I am up to date on my banking for the first time in over a year! Go, Me!
Refinancing
Another effect of all this moving around over the past 7 years is that while I got a decent interest rate on my mortgage in 2008, rates had gone even lower since then.
Rates got so low that I initiated a refinance back in January with a local credit union, which meant yet another bank account (see above), but it was worth it.
It took about two months of processing, but I went from 6% to 4.5% – saving over $200 a month!
I was initially reluctant to refinance, but the rates just became stupid low, and it’s a bi-weekly payment schedule with no pre-payment penalties so it just made sense. Besides, it wasn’t a cash-out refinance, so I wasn’t setting the clock back on owning the home free-and-clear.
Looking ahead
“…And the strength to push like spring”
Rollover to an IRA
That covers what I’ve done so far this year, but the final result of that list of financial changes is due to the job changing: I have a dormant 401(k) plan.
I’ve written about this before. The simple problem is that for the first time in my professional life, I work at a company that offers a terrible 401(k) plan and no company match. I love the job, and it’s in a very secure sector, so it was still the right move to make. But while all this dust was settling on the new job and baby activity, I had put my retirement contributions on hold until I figured out what I wanted to do with it all.
Well, I finally figured it out, and now I need to implement it. No more dawdling, dammit!
In the next few weeks, I will be rolling over my 401(k) to a simple IRA and start implementing my rollover plan detailed here.
Next steps.
After that, I figure it’s a good time to create a new budget to account for the savings from the refinance and the new contributions to my IRA as well as the hidden costs of living in this new house with another child. But more on that another day.
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Posted: May 10th, 2011 | Author: Joe | Filed under: Investing, Tips | Tags: Bonds, commodities, Gold, Government spending, Inflation, Investing, Real Estate, Stagflation, Stocks, Tips, UnEmployment | 6 Comments »
Stagflation. The dreaded “S” word. Stagflation is loosely defined as an economic environment in which inflation is rising, while economic growth (or wage growth) is stagnant or declining. It’s often characterized by high unemployment, and rising prices (high inflation) – the worst of both worlds.
Stagflation, 70′s style.
Most people who are familiar with the term stagflation will no doubt think of the 1970′s when they hear the word. The 1970′s in America was defined by stagflation, and oil shocks.
There is a common belief among many that stagflation in the 1970′s was caused by oil shocks – rapid spikes in oil price, caused by the OPEC nations, and as this article points out:
In desperation, President Jimmy Carter (1977-1981) tried to combat economic weakness and unemployment by increasing government spending, and he established voluntary wage and price guidelines to control inflation. Both were largely unsuccessful.
Others argue that the very reason those efforts were unsuccessful was because they were in fact the cause of much of the problem. Lutz Kilian points out that 1970′s stagflation was caused by poor monetary policy. Oil shocks didn’t help the situation any, but neither did they cause it.
Increasing government spending, lax monetary policy and rising oil prices… sound familiar?
Stagflation, 21st century style.
Despite Ben Bernenke’s claims to the contrary, real inflation has risen quite sharply over the past year. Gasoline prices alone have risen over 10%, food prices aren’t far behind.
Up until now, Bernenke and company have focused only on “core inflation” which excludes “volatile” areas of spending like food and gas. The problem is that while these expenses are volatile and prone to high degrees of fluctuation, they also happen to be things that people need to buy.
It’s one thing to exclude volatile spikes in situations like 2007-2008, when fuel prices spiked, but then receded. However, when real inflation takes hold, the core inflation numbers become misleading at best, and insulting to the general public at worst. As I write this, inflation by some counts is closer to 10% than the official 2.6%.
Everybody knows they’re paying more for food and fuel, so Bernenke only loses credibility with the general populace when he comes out with statements about inflation being “mild” or “tame.”
The Federal Reserve’s liquidity policy is spurring inflation and even leading some states to seek alternative currency.
John Boland, financial adviser at Maple Capital Management sees inflation as high as 6% by the end of 2011 – and that’s the “official number”, not counting food and gas prices!
Some have sounded the alarm over hyperinflation, but personal incomes are flat , at best and declining at worst. This coupled with high unemployment seems to suggest either depression or stagflation.
It looks to me like we have a little of both: depression in the things we want, inflation in the things we need. Things like cell phones, televisions and computers are getting cheaper while food, gas and clothing are getting more expensive.
So, the stage looks set for a potential encore presentation of 70′s style stagflation. How do you survive stagflation and can you possibly thrive during such a time?
Thriving through stagflation
Looking back at the 1970′s makes it pretty clear that very, very few people got rich after accounting for inflation. In fact, it was considered a victory just to keep pace with inflation and not lose “too much” of your wealth.
The average American was much worse off by the time stagflation ended in the early 1980′s.
Here are some of the ways people were able to maintain their savings, if not prosper at least a little.
Investing
Bonds
Seeking Alpha sums up investing in bonds during stagflation like so:
“During the last stagflation, bonds were called “certificates of confiscation” by many professionals in fixed income. It paid to have your fixed income assets as short as possible.”
Because inflation results in each dollar being worth less than previously and a bond is an agreement to pay back a debt today in tomorrow’s dollars, the bond holder is paid back in dollars worth less than he lent. In effect, having his wealth confiscated.
Treasuries are pretty much in the same boat as traditional bonds here, although you can now buy TIPS (Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities). TIPS didn’t exist in the 1970′s, and they were created as a means to protect the value of your savings from inflation. You can learn more about TIPS and buy TIPS at TreasuryDirect.com. Of course, TIPS are indexed to the official government inflation rate and as we’ve seen above, that’s much lower than the real rate. So your savings are still likely to lose value if held in TIPS.
If you have an investment account, you can also buy shares of the iShares Barclays TIPS Bond (TIP) ETF.
If you do hold bonds, keep your domestic bond duration to maturity short. You may also want to diversify into foreign currency bonds.
Some short-term bond ETFs you could use are the Vanguard Short-Term Bond ETF (BSV) and the iShares Barclays 1-3 Year Credit Bond (CSJ). Similarly, there are a number of International bond fund ETFs to choose from as well.
Stocks
When it comes to picking stocks for inflationary or stagflationary times, pricing power is all important. Pricing power simply refers to a company’s ability to raise prices to maintain profit, and not lose sales in the process.
These are the kinds of companies that produce things people need, or are most reluctant to give up. Think: utilities, energy, healthcare and consumer staples.
Commodities
Gold, silver, oil precious metals and agriculture all tend to rise with inflation.
Most commodities have already risen due to anticipated spikes in inflation with excess government spending and have continued to rise with inflation. Precious metals, for example, are probably not likely to be a money maker this late in the game, but they may be one of the few wealth preserving investments this time around.
Other commodities, like oil and agriculture are less of a pure inflation hedge and probably make sense as long term holdings even without high inflation.
You can buy gold coins, and coffee futures on there own, but you can also invest in broad indexes of these and more through ETFs. This provides added diversification, and will let you capture most of the gains with a bit less risk.
To be clear, ETFs that focus on one type of holding are not really diversified. For example, the ETF GLD is focused solely on gold, while DBP is a broader index in the precious metals category. DBP will reward you for gold rising as well as silver and copper, and punish you less if silver takes a tumble but gold and copper remain stable.
There are also a number of good mutual funds for investing in sector stocks, bonds and commodities. I recommend anyone who is interested in those take a look at the fund on Morningstar and find a highly rated (4 or 5 star) fund.
Housing
Traditionally, housing is a go-to place for protecting your money and riding out inflationary waves. Unfortunately, the bursting of the housing bubble has made it difficult to ride that wave this time around. It’s likely to take along time before housing prices begin to rise enough to alleviate inflation, much less keep up with it.
Real estate will likely be sitting this round of inflation out, so people should buy a house only if it makes sense for them to do so – i.e.: it fits their lifestyle and long term goals – not as an investment.
Cash is king
Cash is king when interest rates rise. This will likely be the case toward the end of this inflation cycle, as it was at the end of the last bought of stagflation. In the late 1970′s – 1982, money market accounts were fairly new and proved to be one of the few safe havens.
The problem is that the Fed has kept rates so low, that your savings will actually lose value in a money market now. Eventually though, even the Fed will have to recognize inflation has risen too far too fast and will be forced to do something about it. What they do is raise rates. Quite possibly, very quickly and quite high. This is bad news for people with variable rate debt (mortgages and credit cards) but great news for people with cash on hand to stash in a money market account.
The trick of course is to make it to these final stages with enough money left to preserve in a money market account.
What if I’m wrong?
Whenever I play fortune teller and try to predict the future, I always ask myself: What if I’m wrong?
I’m no expert, but I do know enough to know I don’t know it all and that puts me ahead of many so called experts. So, here’s what you should do if I’m wrong about my views and opinions on stagflation over the next few years:
DIVERSIFY.
That’s what I plan on doing with my money.
Life is full of “what-if”‘s, the only way to get through those moments is to plan for as many possibilities as we can. I still have much of my portfolio in more traditional growth stocks and bonds. I’m not “all in” on gold. I’m simply leaning more toward the types of investments outline in this article so that in the event that these predictions come true, at least in part, I will be in a position to be less negatively impacted.
As I said, I’m no expert and you should speak with a financial planner before making any big decisions. Gold looks great and oil seems like a no brainer, but their prices have been bid up in anticipation of inflation and you may get caught buying high at this point.
I just think you should be aware of the specter of stagflation as being just as possible as rampant inflation or the “gold bubble” bursting.
This has been a
guest post from Mike Ahi. Mike writes about investing for the blog:
AfterHoursInvesting.
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Posted: February 23rd, 2011 | Author: Joe | Filed under: Investing, Retirement, Saving | Tags: 401(k), IRA, Retirement, ROTH IRA, Saving | 1 Comment »
I switched jobs last year and along with a better position and bigger salary came a host of benefit changes. One of these changes was my 401(k) plan.
Regular readers know that I’ve been a steady contributor to my 401(k) at every job I’ve had since I started work professionally about 12 years ago.
Consistent contributions (even through employer match cut-backs and the recent Great Recession) an good plans have allowed me to watch my savings cross the 6-figure mark at the end of last year. But I realize now how lucky I have been to have had such good options in my 401(k) plans to date.
I realize this because I’ve hit a problem with my current plan, and I bet I’m not alone.
The problem
The problem is this: The investment options in my current employer 401k plan stink.
The plan is administered through a well known insurance company with a catchy jingle and fees that top the range of what is considered average for the funds.
I’m a big believer in low fees. Research has shown that most portfolios have a greater chance of outperforming their peers and the benchmarks averages when they invest in lower cost mutual funds or ETFs. It’s just common sense that when all other things are equal, the fund that charges less with leave you with more money in the end.
Of course, some funds out perform their peers and have higher fees. That’s OK too, but the key is that you’re getting a demonstrated track record of out performance for that extra cost.
My problem is that few of the funds in my 401(k) out perform their peers, but still have higher fees.
So, I have a few options and if you’re in the same situation, you do too!
Retirement plan options
The 3 basic retirement plans available to me in my career are:
- Traditional IRA
- Roth IRA
- Employer’s (lousy) 401(k) plan
Each one has benefits and drawbacks, but the Traditional IRA and Roth IRA are slightly different beasts given that the Roth contributions are after tax, while the tradition are pre tax.
I don’t want to roll over my 401(k) to a Roth, because I don’t want to pay the taxes on the conversion. I’m considering opening up a Roth in addition to pre-tax retirement plans in the future, but the Roth is not being considered by me at this time.
That leaves the Traditional IRA and the crappy 401(k).
Rolling over my 401(k) to a traditional IRA seemed liked a no brainer – I would be able to invest in a wider range of funds, stocks and bonds – but then I realized this startling discrepancy:
The contribution limit for a traditional IRA is only $5,000!
By contrast, the limit on a company sponsored 401(k) plan is a whopping $16,500!
With all the talk of financial reform in Washington D.C. over the past two years, and all the discussion about ending the 401(k) plan in favor of another social security style plan, I wish Congress would just make the contribution limit of the IRA as large as the 401(k)!
The total solution
Well, this left me with the choice of saving less in my IRA but paying less fees, or paying higher fees and potentially saving more by using my 401(k).
After much pondering, and poking around the Internet (to no avail), my solution is this…
I will rollover my old 401(k) to a new IRA. I will make the maximum contributions per year ($5,000) to that plan and any remainder I will contribute to the least offensive options in my 401(k).
For example, I’m used to contributing about $7,000 a year to retirement. I will be splitting up that amount like so:
- $5,000 to funds in my IRA
- $2,000 to funds in my 401(k)
I call this the “total solution” because it reminds me to consider the total holding in these two accounts as my portfolio – I have 1 unified portfolio instead of 2 portfolios.
The trick is determining which holding to keep in my 401(k) considering that an future increase in contributions will need to go into those funds. I’m tempted to hold my bond allocations in my 401(k). That way I will automatically increase my bond exposure over time as my contributions increase and I get closer to retirement age.
It’s not an ideal solution by far, but it’s the best I could come up with and I couldn’t find a better one. If you have any suggestions, I would gladly welcome them! 
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