What Does a Recession Feel Like?

There’s actually been some speculation recently in the media that the U.S. might “dodge” a recession. Personally, I’m quite surprised by this. How can we dodge something that we’ve been told we’re in the middle of for 6+ months? I guess I’m really more surprised that the media is changing “moderating” its story. I wouldn’t be surprised at all if the U.S. does dodge the recession bullet.

The main reason is entirely subjective in nature. Despite the doom and gloom in the headlines every single, unrelenting day, it just doesn’t feel like a full blown recession. There is plenty of data to illustrate that so far, the U.S. economy is not in a recession.  What I’d like to do today is give some anecdotal reasons why I don’t see a recession.

1. Goods in Action.

I travel approximately 40 miles on an interstate every business day to work and back. When I started this commute (when I got this job), it was in Q1 of 2003. The U.S. was just edging out of a recession that began in 2000-2001, after the tech bubble burst and the Twin Towers fell. Driving to and from work at that time was bliss, from a traffic standpoint – there practically wasn’t any! Flash forward 5 years and it’s almost bumper to bumper some nights. And while the amount of 18 wheelers I see in my travels has lessened some over the past 6-9 months, there are still plenty of big rigs hauling merchandise, lumber, automobiles, dairy and more from point to point, day in and day out.

2. The Shopping Malls are Packed.

We took the kids to the mall a few weeks back when we needed to make way for a house showing, and let me tell you – that place was crowded! Again, it wasn’t the weekend before Christmas busy, but certainly more than I expected on a week night in the middle of “the greatest economic crisis since the stock market crash of 1929.”

3. The Restaurants are Packed.

A few days ago, we again had to vacate the premises for a showing but this time we went out to dinner. Nothing special. Just the local Appleby’s. Again, I was amazed at the volume of people for a Tuesday night. What are all these people doing eating out during a recession?! Aren’t they afraid they might lose their jobs? Apparently not.

4. My Employer Can’t Hire Enough Skilled People.

We’ve been losing people left, right and down the middle since the company was acquired last year. These people weren’t laid off – they left of their own accord. I’m not sure where they’re all going, but there are many places still hiring, I can tell you that much.

To be fair, many of these examples are affected by local economic conditions and markets. But there is national data to back some of this up. For instance, the most recent jobless claims report showed that unemployment was less than expected.  Of course, the media has to color it in a negative light by stating “Data still at level indicating labor market is strained” But the fact remains that unemployment figures are still low for the recession we’re supposed to be in.

Also, the Dow Jones Transport Average which is often used in the stock market as a leading indicator of economic direction has been rising steadily over the past 3 months:

I just don’t feel like we’re in a recession. In fact, I feel that we may avoid one altogether. How about you?

• Buffett U. :Warren Buffet Interview on Fox Business Channel.
• More Shoppers Avoiding Credit Cards.
• A New Wave of Adjustable Rate Mortgages About to Reset.
• U.S. Economy at Death’s Door, Knocking Loudly.

• Forex Trading: Mistakes Made By Beginners
• Dow Jones Industrial Average
• Chinese leaders confront economic crisis
• With the US trapped in depression, this really is starting to feel like 1932